WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - A synopsis of US economic indicators to be released this week, with forecasts provided by Thomson's IFR Markets.
MONDAY DECEMBER 17
The US current account deficit is expected to decrease to 184.4 bln usd in quarter three from 190.8 in quarter four. Economists from Bank of America said, "The decline in the trade value of the dollar, slowing domestic demand and forward economic momentum among our major trading partners continues to bring about an improvement in the current account balance."
The December Empire State manufacturing survey, which measures industrial conditions in the New York region, is expected to drop to 22.6 from 27.4 in November. Joseph Brusuelas from IDEAglobal said, "The sharp increase in the cost of energy and commodities should weigh heavily on the outlook of firms heading into the final month of the year."
The December NAHB Homebuilders sentiment survey is expected to be 19, the same as in November when it was a record low.
TUESDAY DECEMBER 18
The November US Housing starts are expected to drop to annual rate of 1.178 mln from 1.229 mln in October. "Unlike September and October, which were driven largely by volatility in multi-family starts, we think the bulk of the decline should come from single family starts," said economists from Credit Suisse. They noted that single family permits, a leading indicator for single family starts, had plummeted in October to their lowest level since November 1991. US building permits overall are expected to drop in November to an annual rate of 1.145 mln from 1.178 mln in October.
THURSDAY DECEMBER 20
The final GDP in the third quarter is projected to be unrevised from its previous estimate of 4.9 pct. Brusuelas said the projected Q3 growth is likely "inventory inspired." In the preliminary estimate of third quarter GDP, released November 29, inventories contributed nearly 1 percentage point to the 4.9 pct growth.
Brusuelas added: "Under normal circumstances, market players would be rejoicing with holiday cheer about possible momentum going into the New Year. However, the impending inventory correction and credit inspired reduction in fixed business investment will make the release of this market data an event that is decisively in the market's rearview mirror."
The final GDP Price index in the third quarter is also projected to be unrevised at 0.9 pct.
The number of people filing first time claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending December 15 is expected to increase to 335,000 from 333,000 in the previous week. The number of individuals who continued to receive unemployment insurance in the week ending December 8 is expected to drop to 2.60 mln from 2.64 mln in the previous week.
The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing conditions in the district is projected to be 6.4 in December, following an 8.2 level in November.
FRIDAY DECEMBER 21
Personal income in November is expected to increase by 0.5 pct after increasing 0.2 pct in October. Personal consumption in November is also expected to increase by 0.6 pct, three times the rate it rose in October.
However, economists from BNP Paribas said the projected increase is "illusory as nearly all of the gain in the goods portion is due to the sharp increase in gasoline prices and therefore gasoline sales. Excluding gasoline sales, total goods sales are seen as lacklustre in November as they were in October."
The core PCE price index in November is expected to increase by an annual rate of 2.0 pct, slightly above the 1.9 pct increase in October. Robert Brusca from FAO Economics said that given the Core CPI figure released December 14 by the Labor Department, "you have to figure that pressure passes on to the PCE core." Core CPI, which rose in November by 0.3 pct, was moderate in comparison to the 0.8 pct increase in headline CPI but still out of the comfort zone of many economists.
Given risks to inflation, the Federal Reserve is "probably fairly content" with their lower than expected quarter point cut to the discount rate earlier this week.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in December is projected at a level of 74.8, slightly above November's 74.5 level. "Outside of energy, consumers have been struggling with continued housing weakness, financial market uncertainty and tighter credit, which should keep confidence low," said economists from Lehman Brothers.
MONDAY DECEMBER 17
The US current account deficit is expected to decrease to 184.4 bln usd in quarter three from 190.8 in quarter four. Economists from Bank of America said, "The decline in the trade value of the dollar, slowing domestic demand and forward economic momentum among our major trading partners continues to bring about an improvement in the current account balance."
The December Empire State manufacturing survey, which measures industrial conditions in the New York region, is expected to drop to 22.6 from 27.4 in November. Joseph Brusuelas from IDEAglobal said, "The sharp increase in the cost of energy and commodities should weigh heavily on the outlook of firms heading into the final month of the year."
The December NAHB Homebuilders sentiment survey is expected to be 19, the same as in November when it was a record low.
TUESDAY DECEMBER 18
The November US Housing starts are expected to drop to annual rate of 1.178 mln from 1.229 mln in October. "Unlike September and October, which were driven largely by volatility in multi-family starts, we think the bulk of the decline should come from single family starts," said economists from Credit Suisse. They noted that single family permits, a leading indicator for single family starts, had plummeted in October to their lowest level since November 1991. US building permits overall are expected to drop in November to an annual rate of 1.145 mln from 1.178 mln in October.
THURSDAY DECEMBER 20
The final GDP in the third quarter is projected to be unrevised from its previous estimate of 4.9 pct. Brusuelas said the projected Q3 growth is likely "inventory inspired." In the preliminary estimate of third quarter GDP, released November 29, inventories contributed nearly 1 percentage point to the 4.9 pct growth.
Brusuelas added: "Under normal circumstances, market players would be rejoicing with holiday cheer about possible momentum going into the New Year. However, the impending inventory correction and credit inspired reduction in fixed business investment will make the release of this market data an event that is decisively in the market's rearview mirror."
The final GDP Price index in the third quarter is also projected to be unrevised at 0.9 pct.
The number of people filing first time claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending December 15 is expected to increase to 335,000 from 333,000 in the previous week. The number of individuals who continued to receive unemployment insurance in the week ending December 8 is expected to drop to 2.60 mln from 2.64 mln in the previous week.
The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing conditions in the district is projected to be 6.4 in December, following an 8.2 level in November.
FRIDAY DECEMBER 21
Personal income in November is expected to increase by 0.5 pct after increasing 0.2 pct in October. Personal consumption in November is also expected to increase by 0.6 pct, three times the rate it rose in October.
However, economists from BNP Paribas said the projected increase is "illusory as nearly all of the gain in the goods portion is due to the sharp increase in gasoline prices and therefore gasoline sales. Excluding gasoline sales, total goods sales are seen as lacklustre in November as they were in October."
The core PCE price index in November is expected to increase by an annual rate of 2.0 pct, slightly above the 1.9 pct increase in October. Robert Brusca from FAO Economics said that given the Core CPI figure released December 14 by the Labor Department, "you have to figure that pressure passes on to the PCE core." Core CPI, which rose in November by 0.3 pct, was moderate in comparison to the 0.8 pct increase in headline CPI but still out of the comfort zone of many economists.
Given risks to inflation, the Federal Reserve is "probably fairly content" with their lower than expected quarter point cut to the discount rate earlier this week.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in December is projected at a level of 74.8, slightly above November's 74.5 level. "Outside of energy, consumers have been struggling with continued housing weakness, financial market uncertainty and tighter credit, which should keep confidence low," said economists from Lehman Brothers.
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